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On essentials, metro households are slipping in real terms. Since 2022, staples spend per person is up 0.7% in the cities while CPI rose 12.3%. Regional areas lifted staples by 10.2% over the same period- still tight, but closer to keeping pace with inflation.

Sequel to my October article: Adelaide and Perth stood out with surprising spending growth (both exceeding 5% after inflation). While easing inflation offered some relief, cost-of-living pressures kept spending tight elsewhere. With rate cuts expected in 2025, could we see a shift in consumer sentiment?

Our latest analysis, using seasonal ARIMA and Prophet time series models, predicts a dip in Christmas spending across Australia's capital cities in 2024. Inflation at 3.8% and high interest rates are squeezing household budgets, with some expected to see declines.

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